Strategic assessments


2020

Strategic Assessment

Dr. Heiko Borchert, 2020

Looking beyond the abyss

Eight scenarios on the post-Covid-19 business landscape

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Available April 15, 2020

Available formats: PDF

 

License: Unless otherwise noted, this content provided is licensed under

Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 4.0.


Content

Executive Summary

Shock Bonanza Triggers Instant Demobilization

Constructing Scenarios

Geo-Economic Scenarios

Withdrawal to Isolation

Friendly Disinterest

Vibrant Cocooning

Unified Resolve

Corporate Scenarios

Game Over

Potemkin or Baywatch

Strategic Opportunity

Champion

Scenario Combinations

Conclusions

References

About the Author

About 21strategies and the Series

Abstract

After the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, nations find themselves in a situation never encountered before. While politics speaks of a "new normal", the question remains: Which new normal? Dr. Heiko Borchert describes eight post-Covid-19 scenarios nations may follow with an impact on both international cooperation and economies.

About the author

Since 1997, security and defense policy advisor for military/national security organizations and corporates with a focus on armaments cooperation, defense-related science and technology, energy security, geostrategic analysis, maritime security, and scenario-based strategic planning. Heiko is a Swiss-German dual citizen. He has graduated with a PhD from the University of St. Gallen, lectures at national security institutions, and has published more than 140 papers.


2019

Content

Executive Summary

A Fraying International Order Accelerates the Rise of Flow Control

Grand Systemic Competition Reloaded: The Four Key Dimensions of Flow Control

Competition for Zones of Influence

Competition for Rules, Norms, Principles, and Standards

Competition for Narratives

Competition for Prosperity Models

Porter Goes Geopolitics: Consequences for Business

Agro-Business

Banking and Finance

Construction and Infrastructure Development

Defense

Digital Industries

Extractive Industries and Mining

Transport and Logistics

Three Considerations for Investors

Geostrategic Risk Appetite and Risk Reporting

Sanctions Vulnerability

Investor Risks

Conclusion

Literature

About the Author

About HEDGE21

Strategic Assessment

Dr. Heiko Borchert, 2019

Flow control rewrites globalization

Abstract

Today's international order has enabled the free flow of goods, services, data, capital, and the unrestricted movement of people. These strategic flows have advanced prosperity and deepened connectedness. But the fraying international order gives rise to a more skeptical view on connectedness. Rather than emphasizing the benefits and opportunities, a prevailing zero-sum logic underlines and exploits the vulnerabilities of dependence. That's why nations, in particular ambitious emerging status quo challengers, increasingly focus on flow control.

 

Flow control describes the will and the capability of an actor to set the framework and the operational conditions for strategic flows. This entails the power to (1) define, monitor, and enforce the rules that enable flows, (2) decide upon access to and maneuverability within the geospatial corridors that flows travers, (3) shape the volume and the direction of strategic flows by using flow enablers (e.g., infrastructure, transport means, technology) for one's own purpose and denying their use to competitors.

 

The business impact of flow control will be fundamental, because it affects corporate supply chains. Corporate supply chains provide the highways for strategic flows and are at the center of the emerging geo-economic competition. Ambitious status-quo challengers want to exert power by shaping the volume and the direction of strategic flows. That's why they will engage in downstream, upstream, midstream, and lateral supply chain competition.

 

Investors will need to think carefully about three immediate consequences. First, they require more clarity about corporate geostrategic risk appetites that need to inform risk reporting. Second, corporate sanctions vulnerabilities increase because sanctions are getting more personal – thus hitting corporate executives – and focus on technologies that serve as corporate strategic differentiators. Investors will want to know how companies will mitigate both risks. Finally, the motives and the origin of investors come under tight scrutiny thus requiring investors to be warier about potential investment partners.

Download report

Available April 15, 2020

Available formats: PDF

 

License: Unless otherwise noted, this content provided is licensed under

Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 4.0.

About The Author

Since 1997, security and defense policy advisor for military/national security organizations and corporates with a focus on armaments cooperation, defense-related science and technology, energy security, geostrategic analysis, maritime security, and scenario-based strategic planning. Heiko is a Swiss-German dual citizen. He has graduated with a PhD from the University of St. Gallen, lectures at national security institutions, and has published more than 140 papers.